BBC Analysis: Why hasn't Iran's establishment collapsed yet?

It has been almost a month since the start of the war and since Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was assassinated on February 28.

Some people inside Iran I spoke to expected the war to end that very day, but it didn't. And the Iranian power structure continues to stand.

Iran has a very complex system of governance. While the Supreme Leader holds the ultimate authority, there is also a parallel state – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an institution whose power goes far beyond a conventional military mandate.

Several senior IRGC commanders have been killed during this war and last summer's conflict. However, they have repeatedly stated that for every person killed, there is always a replacement ready to take their place.

The IRGC also controls the Basij, a volunteer militia with about a million members, who are often deployed on the streets to use force and suppress opponents.

Israel has said it has hit several Basij checkpoints, but from what I have heard this week from Tehran, these forces are still very much present in the city, stopping cars and conducting checks.

When it comes to protests, people inside the country have been threatened by Iranian authorities – through public statements and mass phone messages – not to take to the streets to protest.

The internet has also been severely restricted, making coordination among protesters very difficult.

So far, there have been no mass protests against the regime since the start of the war, although state media shows nightly rallies of regime supporters in various cities.

The man who has not yet been seen in public is Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, since taking office in early March. So far, only a few of his written messages have been published in Iranian media. Israel had promised to target him.

Although the Iranian establishment has replaced slain leaders and deployed forces at checkpoints, it has yet to prove it can govern a country that currently appears to be held more by force than by visible authority./ BBC

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