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Why the US hit Iran and Venezuela: The big oil game to weaken China
2026-03-07 21:58:27 / BOTA
The strikes on Iran are part of the United States' larger oil game, which extends beyond the Middle East and aims to put pressure on China, the country that Washington sees as its main global rival, several analysts told Newsweek.
These strikes constitute the second US attack in less than three months against an oil-rich ally of China, after earlier this year the US also launched a military operation against Venezuela, overthrowing the government there.
Both Venezuela and Iran have been close friends and strategic allies of China, which bought oil from them on very favorable terms.
The United States sees China as its main rival on the global stage. China's vast industrial capacity and rapid naval buildup position Beijing to challenge American military dominance in the Pacific, as well as its global influence.
Meanwhile, the Chinese military has been conducting increasingly aggressive military exercises around Taiwan, raising fears of a possible invasion.
In Iran, as in Venezuela in January, although there were many factors at play, analysts say it was about more than local or regional politics.
"The goal is to cut off the main source of cheap oil for China," said Madi Kapparov, an economist and research director at the Centre for Information Defence and Strategies, based in London.
According to Kapparov, the disruption of oil supplies to China poses a particular threat to the Chinese military, which needs a stable supply of gasoline and diesel to operate.
China has invested heavily in new coal-fired power plants and renewable energy, but as he points out, "an army cannot run on coal or renewable energy."
For years, Beijing had managed to lower the price of the oil it bought from Iran, as the country had few buyers due to long-term international sanctions over its nuclear program.
According to analytical firm Kpler, China purchased more than 80 percent of the oil exported from Iran in 2025.
Figures for the percentage of oil China imports from Iran vary from 0 to 18 percent, after Chinese customs data stopped reporting shipments from Iran in 2022, Kapparov said.
According to Reuters, about 13 percent of the crude oil that China transports by sea comes from Iran. However, this trade often takes place in secret, with ship-to-ship transfers, including off the coast of Malaysia.
Until January, Venezuela supplied about 4 percent of China's oil needs. But hopes in Beijing that the loss of Venezuelan oil would be offset by Iranian imports now appear to have faded.
China also buys oil from Russia, another political ally, but replacing Iranian oil is not so simple, as Russian oil may require different refining processes.
Beijing also buys oil from other countries, but these purely commercial supplies could be jeopardized if China were to invade Taiwan, as the country would face international sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
According to Ross Babbage, executive director of Strategic Forum, an Australia-based strategic consultancy, and a fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, developments in Iran are part of an even larger strategy.
With the attack on Iran and the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, another long-serving authoritarian leader has fallen, Babbage said. “It seems that the elements of an American strategy are there, and it seems that it is making real progress,” he said.
"Countries that were authoritarian bastions are falling one by one. Beijing and Moscow's partners are dwindling in number and strategic weight."
According to him, what is happening is a series of steps by the United States and its allies, especially Israel in the case of Iran, to change the pro-authoritarian orientation of these states. The goal is for these countries to change course and become at least neutral, if not pro-Western.
However, Babbage warns that the contours of the US strategy remain unclear. "I would be the first to say that the evidence is scattered. Some people in the US administration seem to have a fairly coherent vision, but in practical implementation there are many other factors to consider, including the decision-making around the current operation in Iran," he said.
More broadly, developments in Iran and Venezuela have raised questions not only about China and Russia, but also about their partnerships in the developing world, where both countries have rapidly expanded their influence in recent years.
"They speak in grandiose terms about the regimes they support and who are their partners. But when the moment of truth comes, what have they done to support Venezuela against the United States? The answer is that they could not actually do anything," Babbage said.
“In my opinion, the situation is very similar with Iran.” He predicts that Cuba could be the next country. “We are seeing a very real possibility that Cuba will collapse within the next few months.”/ newsweek – bota.al
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