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Elections in Hungary, here's why the European Union is holding its breath for Viktor Orbán's political fate
2026-04-06 19:48:50 / BOTA
Hungary's parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 12, are expected to have profound consequences not only for the country, but for the entire European Union.
Nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the bloc's longest-serving leader with 16 years in power, is facing a slump in the polls against his rival, Péter Magyar. For many officials in Brussels, a potential defeat for Orbán is seen as a relief and an opportunity to unblock EU decision-making, which has been repeatedly hampered by his vetoes.
The rival Magyar has promised that, if elected, he will repair Hungary's damaged relations with the European Union, a promise that comes at a time when the bloc faces unprecedented challenges, from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, to Russian sabotage and new transatlantic uncertainties.
Veto tactics and the clash with Brussels
Orbán has used his veto power – and a deep understanding of the mechanisms of fund distribution – to extract concessions from the EU. Although Hungary was one of the largest beneficiaries of European funds from 2014 to 2022, the Hungarian prime minister has often compared Brussels to the Soviet Union, consistently resisting calls to halt democratic backsliding.
The boiling point was reached last month, when Orbán broke an agreement by blocking the granting of a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine. This brought a strong reaction from the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, who declared in sharp tones:
"No one can blackmail the institutions of the European Union."
According to analysts, the Hungarian prime minister's approach has exposed a fundamental weakness of the Union. Dániel Hegedűs, of the Institute for European Policy in Berlin, points out that Orbán joined the "club", read the rules, understood how to manipulate them and began to blackmail other members.
Exposing the EU's "design flaw"
The need for unanimity in important decisions is increasingly seen as the EU’s main stumbling block. An internal European Parliament report finds that Orbán has used his veto far more than any other leader in the bloc’s history. For German lawmaker Daniel Freund, this is “the biggest design flaw in the EU.”
Faced with this situation, several possible reform measures are being discussed:
Unanimous vote restriction - Passing measures by a simple majority of 27 national leaders, bypassing individual blockages.
Using Article 7 - An extreme legal measure that could strip Hungary of its voting rights. However, this requires unanimity from the other members, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has already stated that he will veto it to protect Hungary.
Specific sanctions - The European Commission can toughen the approach by designing punitive measures dedicated to violations of internal rules.
Financial pressure and lessons for enlargement
In response to violations of rule of law standards and judicial independence, the EU began freezing billions of dollars in funds for Budapest as early as 2022. Currently, the European Commission has not approved Hungary’s offer to withdraw about 16 billion euros from a program to increase defense capabilities, although 18 other countries have had their plans approved. If Orbán is re-elected, this frozen fund is expected to be used as a bargaining chip by Brussels.
The turbulent experience with the Orbán government has also fundamentally changed the EU's approach to accepting new members. As the bloc continues negotiations with countries such as Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine, the main focus is on preventive mechanisms. As European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, noted, reflecting on the 2004 enlargement:
"If countries go back on our foundations, such as democracy and the rule of law, the safeguards must be tough. No Trojan horses."
As April 12 approaches, the eyes of the entire continent are turned to Budapest, waiting to see whether this era of clashes with Brussels will end, or whether the EU will have to continue the battle with its most difficult internal challenge.
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