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"Foreigners appear more in police statistics," Munich study: Immigration has no impact on...
2025-02-19 20:03:24 / BOTA
An increasing percentage of immigrants has no connection with the crime rate in a region. This is the result of an analysis by the Munich-based ifo Institute. Compared to Germans, foreigners appear more often in police crime statistics (PKS).
This is often used as an argument that migration endangers security in Germany because foreigners are more likely to commit crimes. However, researchers at the Munich-based ifo Institute have reached a different conclusion in a recent data-driven analysis: the higher rate of foreigners in crime statistics does not prove a higher propensity for crime among immigrants, nor does it indicate an increase in crime in the countries where they settle.
Police Crime Statistics (PKS) records known crimes and identified suspects. Traffic violations, financial and tax offenses, and offenses against state security are excluded.
Ifo researchers analyzed the statistics by district and independent city. Their result: "We find no correlation between an increasing proportion of foreigners in a district and the local crime rate. The same applies in particular to those seeking protection," says ifo researcher Jean-Victor Alipour. "The results are consistent with the findings of international research, according to which migration and flight have no systematic impact on crime in the host country."
Migration does not change local crime
The fact that foreigners are overrepresented in crime statistics is not due to their origin, but to other factors. Compared to the German population, foreigners are younger and the proportion of men is higher. In addition, they more often live in regions where crime is more common, for example in urban areas. There, Germans also display more criminal behavior.
This leads to an apparent paradox: according to statistics, foreigners commit crimes more often, but overall migration has no impact on the crime rate in the country. The explanation for this is that migrants are more likely to move to areas with a higher crime risk. If they have a similar tendency towards criminal behavior as native Germans, the local crime rate there will remain the same. However, at the national level, the crime rate among migrants increases as their share in the total population increases.
Ifo researchers also investigated whether changes in the percentage of foreigners in a district or independent city had an impact on local crime during the study period between 2018 and 2023. No significant correlation was found, neither for overall crime, nor for street crime or homicides.
Other studies, to which the ifo researchers refer, also come to this conclusion: immigration between 2008 and 2019 had no significant effect on crime in Germany. In contrast, crime increased in West Germany between 1996 and 2006, when around three million people of German origin moved there from Eastern Europe, including many young people and people with low skills.
Integration reduces the risk of crime
According to the authors, the risk of criminal behavior among migrants can be reduced by integration measures such as language courses. The same applies to easier access to German citizenship for them, as this increases employment opportunities.
Job search assistance and social benefits also reduce crime. The possibility of legal and long-term earnings reduces the attraction to illegal activities. Here, unbureaucratic access to the labor market is essential. Employment bans for asylum seekers, on the other hand, have negatively affected their economic integration.
It would also make sense to simplify the recognition of foreign qualifications. These are only recognized with difficulty or with delay. As a result, migrants work below their level of qualification and earn correspondingly less./DW
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